Today's Signals 9/23/14

Current Positions:

Short Eur/USD 1.2856 or higher
Short AUD/CAD .9797 or higher
Short XAU/USD 1227.72 or higher

Exited the following trades in the past 24 hours:

Long USD/CAD 1.0967 +56
Long EUR/AUD 1.4363+89
Long GBP/USD 1.6331 +27
Long EUR/JPY 140.08 -40






*Stops are always based on the previous swing high or low prior to the signal and require an hourly close above or below this swing high or low; they are not based on a strict price.

Today's Signals 9/22/14

Nice morning action as the loss from Friday has been over taken with a really nice pop in EUR/AUD

Exit USD/CHF .9350 +35
Long USD/CAD 1.0967 +30, stop to break even
Long EUR/AUD 1.4363+113 stop to break even

New positions
Long GBP/USD 1.6331 or lower
Long EUR/JPY 140.08 or lower

*Stops are always based on the previous swing high or low prior to the signal.

Today's Signals 9/19/14

Three markets signaled today:

Buy USD/CHF .9350 or lower
Buy USD/CAD 1.0965 or lower, 1.0967 or lower
Buy EUR/AUD 1.4363 or lower

Results:
Buy USD/CAD -65

Second signal on USD/CAD

Open Positions:
Long USD/CHF .9350 +46
Long USD/CAD 1.0967+8
Long EUR/AUD 1.4363+1

Stops are based on an hourly close BELOW the swing low at the time of the the signal.

September has returned with welcome volatility

After what has been a shockingly sludgy market, September has seen volatility expansion to the Forex markets with a bang.

Here are the pip totals so far with 2 weeks of trading said and done.

EUR/USD no trades
GBP/USD +212
AUD/USD +114
EUR/JPY +171
GBP/JPY +198
USD/CAD +32
XAU/USD +231
OIL +272

Most gains were primarily set up on Tuesday the 16th, which was a FED speaking day. It's encouraging to see that the FED announcements are once again causing markets to move.

*Please note, all trades are taken off the meantrades hourly system applying a daily supertrend filter to determine which trades to exclude and which trades to take.

**No position sizing modifications were made for these pip totals. If one were to consider position sizing modification, the first trade after the daily supertrend filter would be a full sized position while each additional trade taken in the same direction as the established daily supertrend would be a half size position. This is necessary in a low volatility environment where waiting for the supertrend cross to exit would create extremely small gains as the price behavior in such an environment, contrary to expectations, does not trend well at all. It is in the truest sense of the word, a mean reverting environment.

Forex System Development Consulting

I now offer consulting for those who are finally at the systems development phase of their trading journey. Most are looking for a good system which is just the entry phase of becoming a trader.

The next phase requires that you adapt what you have learned until that point into a personalized version of how you see the markets trading.

It took me a good 5 years into my trading development before I began to realize this massive difference.

All the great books on trading will tell you the same thing. One of the Market Wizards is famous for saying that he could give his exact profitable system to 10 people and some of them would still lose money.

With this in mind, I offer my 12 plus years experience in Forex and Futures trading to those who are ready to  take the next step.

If your system is viable, I can even code it for you in EA format.

I will watch you trade and give important technical and psychological feedback every step of the way. I enjoy the path which trading allows one to discover about themselves and I would like very much to help you as well.

You can always contact me on skype at mezameo for more details.

Happy trading

Anemic Volatility

Here we are into the homestretch of the trading year and volatility is frighteningly anemic. Meantrades just doesn't perform well on an intraday basis without those sharp swings between support and resistance. Taken about a 20% hit the past 2 weeks and am considering waiting it out a few days, even weeks, until the volatility returns. I feel fortunate I can see a link between the system results and a precise metric. However it still does not change the fact that market conditions are not ideal for a system which buys volatility.

Until I see a decent uptick in the 3 month ATMF volumes, I am going to trade the weekly version of meantrades where at least I know the markets can trend long enough to see some gains.

Keeping the switch on

Looking back at the previous post so many months ago I am pleasantly surprised at how much my attitude towards automation has changed. Since the end of June I have been on an automated version of my system and the results have been nothing if not impressive. Some takeaways over the past few months in my transition from mechanical manual trading to automation include:

• Accepting drawdowns with a more passive attitude. The roll-out of the EA conincided with a technically poor Forex market. There was no volatility or serious volume coming into the market this summer--which is to be expected with many large traders off for the summer months. However I kept the controls on and sat passively while the system took it's lumps. It was perhaps the first time ever in my trading career where I allowed my account equity to drop without any attempt at hedging or removing stops. Ironically I feel I have grown as a trader by becoming less involved in my actual trades.

• Having a healthy expectancy. By knowing how meantrades has performed in the past, keeping the switch on during drawdowns enables me to avoid missing the huge upswings in account equity. At the moment my expectancy is only around 1.3 for every dollar risked. Most long term systems tend to float around 1.5 to 2 for really huge returns. There are a few considerations on the lower expectancy such as trailing supertrend exits too closely during flattening volatility in the Asian session. Widening the supertrend stop as well as taking Friday afternoons off are two of the ideas I am toying with currently. Generally speaking though, 1.3 is enough for things to get very interesting in the long term. Currently meantrades is running at about 60% accuracy on the 3 markets I am trading everyday (those are EUR/USD, GBP/USD and the cfd for oil). I am thinking like a trend trader on this matter and would probably like to tighten the stops more, reduce the drawdown and get larger returns less frequently. All in due course. For now it's about keeping the switch on and maintaining a healthy expectancy.