Without faith there can be no commitment to the system. Once this is the case we are back to speculation and playing with randomness. Not a happy place for an independent retail trader to be.
So, where to go from here? Scale back. Trade smaller size and wait for the markets to come to me. No reason to think that there has been some fundamental shift in the pricing behavior of intraday markets. Perhaps contraction of overnight volatility paired with anemic global trade has taken many of the pricing spikes out of the market. I'm not an economist and I don't work at a bank but there is no reason to toss a system which has performed so well in the past just because of a few unprofitable weeks (no matter how painful that experience can be).
I will however keep trading my intraday trend system running to keep some balance in the portfolio. The trend system has performed quite respectably. Most days it can take a quick 30 pips from the market. Not always, that's why I have not completely abandoned meantrades in the past. The polar opposite approach of reversion to the mean trading is probably not trend trading but the two strategies complement each other with delightful symmetry.
|A rare profitable day for meantrades on Friday, +59 before the NY open.|