Pullback from a weekly breakout. The stuff of textbooks...
Monday, August 31, 2009
Goals for the week
Last week ratcheted my level of accountability in my trading up a notch (or two) I decided, against my ego driven desire( which is to be right rather than profitable), to employ hard stops on all trades employed in the Meantrade method. The results were excellent. Only 3 stops and the other half of the trades either worked out for modest gains or screaming winners. It is the kinds of results one would mark as PROGRESS with caps and a big smiley =)
This week will be more of the same. By using the Fibo extension levels strictly as support and resistance levels it means on some days when prices make the majoirty of their move before the opening range is established(as is the case for GJ today), I will be sitting on the sidelines and perhaps need to supplement the levels with something else to create entry levels.
I have considered using extreme volume bar ranges taking the highs as resistance and the lows as support. It does not always match up with my trading ranges, but I have noticed when these levels are in play, they tend to be extremely accurate and price does respond swiftly. Take a look at the above chart for a clear example.
To recap, the primary goal for the week to maintain my discipline by applying hard stops to all trades entered.
Thursday, August 27, 2009
Missed setups
Today *thinking* kept me out of perfectly valid setups. I am listening to others thoughts on the condition of the immediate market. This is not useful as I already have a stand alone method which does not require the opinions of others to enter. If I am already in a profitable trade and sentiment seems to be shifting based on some popular market commentators, I might take it into consideration.
Ultimately the decision to enter and to exit the market should be based on what I am looking at on the chart. After all, it has proven itself worthy of my attention. No reason to deviate from it.
Wednesday, August 26, 2009
Tuesday, August 25, 2009
Exit EU Buy UC
Still holding GU for a final push up. Took profits on EU above 1.4345 +75. Stopped at break even on the previous UC trade. Now back in UC for the bounce.
Monday, August 24, 2009
Stopped GU -52
The market seems completely dead today. Stalking the next trade, expect the volatility to only pick up from here. Have to give a little blood to the trading Gods to get any sustenance for the harvest.
Buy GU
Playing the early morning bounce. Targeting the upper Keltner. Stops below the low of the day +10
Goals for the Week
This week I will trade two methods. The first and primary method is Meantrade with the newest golden ratio levels as my "battle lines." Stops will be based on the previous highest high or lowest low from that day, or if earlier enough in the session, from the previous day. I expect my win/ loss ratio to be around 60% by applying hard stops. I accept this because it means I will not blow up.
The second method is based on breakouts. On Monday's there is an overwhelming tendency for GJ to trend most of the day. I will simply create 60 range CRB's and hold the position until the Heiken Ashi's reverse. Simply following the trend on Monday's has yielded robust gains for the year and I expect the tendency to continue. I will not take the breakout trades on other currencies so readily. For those I will only trade in the direction of the weekly breakout basing the previous weeks highs and lows and marker points. Once the CRB prints higher than the previous weeks high and lower then the previous weeks low, I will trade only in the direction of the breakout.
I favor the Meantrade method over the breakout method, but I will keep my eyes open for both.
My concrete goal for the week is to use hard stops when trading Meantrade.
Sunday, August 23, 2009
Golden Ratio Results
When price bounces off the golden ratio levels on UC the results are quite amazing. 11 bounces 2 losses so far in August. 9 of these trades went for more than 50 pips each. 3 trades for more than 80 pips. I will try and get someone to make a support and resistance indicator for this so I can post it on all my charts. I am very excited about this. A postive refinement of the Meantrade method with even more accuracy than before. This is progress.
Now back to the other 90% reading up on Dr. Brett...
Friday, August 21, 2009
golden ratio?
I was wandering about my charts today and happened upon this one. Going to backtest it and see what I can come up with. Maybe meantrades has a new mean...a very old one!
Short GJ
Took an early short and didn't have my target in the market, got stopped at entry and now short again for the swing. Will see if we can get a touch of the 4hr Keltner at 153.41. In fact The 4hr looks like it could begin to take a massive drop outside of the current flat channel. All the attempts at higher prices have weakened as they entered the upper part of the 4hr Keltner.
Short GJ
Really terrible day for trading yesterday. There were two signals. Both winners. I missed them both because of trying to trade something besides my system. Markets are split with the euro higher against the dollars the pound lower. Until these two start trading in the same direction again, the markets are not going to get too far in one direction.
This was the only trade during the NY session. Still open, will wait for the heiken ashi to turn up for profit.
Wednesday, August 19, 2009
Sell EU +30
First Keltner touch and I am out. Market is opening weak, only EU is above the VP. Currently I have left quite a bit on the table. Will keep an eye out for GBP weakness again to short.
Buy EU
GBP dropped like a rock today EU has barely gone anywhere. GBP starting to ease up a bit, I'm long for the keltner touch.
Tuesday, August 18, 2009
Sell UC +5
I was thinking this afternoon about what is the ideal exit point in a trade. I decided it was not at the best price. Of course I want to make as much as possible. But the problem is you have to let the MARKET TAKE YOU OUT in order to do that. How do I let the market take me out? I place a stop, I don't adjust it against my position and I swing for the fences. This inevitably leads to several more losses than if I were to get out at the first sign of weakness against the trade. But if a market retraces past the initial entry point and has not first at least touched the Keltners I would say it was in fact a good trade.
Why?
Because I live and die by the Keltner's. And after countless observations, it is well worth the waiting game to see how the market reacts to the band touch. If it bounces off it without hanging around, the market is decided. But if it lingers chances are it will continue in it's chosen path. Today my trade on GJ is just such a trade. It lingered, but it never broke, a good sign to exit.
Whereas on the UC trade I just exited, the market rejected the band level and we traded back to entry. Of course this does not guarantee I will exit at the wrong time more often than not, but what it enables me to do is hit a rare home run. If I exited before the keltner touch, I do not even put myself in the game. Bad strategy.
Let the market take me out, good strategy.
Buy EU
Range is getting very tight here. Had 100 pips on GJ but remained short. Expecting prices to swing both ways today without any major breakouts. Let's see what happens.
Sell EU +18
Market didn't really take off from the bounce. Had to hold for more than 12 hours. Taking a modest profit.
Monday, August 17, 2009
Ni Shanghai Wo!
Man I really don't like the look of this. Most indexes have healthy push and pull but Shanghai is pure momentum. It looks like the bears are really at full throttle now. Unlike more developed markets, Shanghai does not have a futures or short selling market to keep things in a relative state of equilibrium. So when the sellers come they just bring in more sellers. A lot of people are saying China is leading the world. If their index is down like this today, what can we expect in America or Europe this week?
Saturday, August 15, 2009
Broken bones, broken trades and a renewal
Not a likely excuse but still a fact. I broke my ankle two weeks ago and missed the opportune exits of the trades I was managing. Took an ugly hit on my GJ short but had nice pips on UC and GU long. Again, a scratch trade. So far an unprofitable month. I have been reading Brett Steenbarger';s books again. I find his work so valuable and relevant that it won't be long before his place among the more famous Van Tharp's and Mark Douglas' trading bibles is secured.
Whatever, I still don't do the exercises in his books and my mental game is as dull as a Chinese steak knife.
Next week my goals:
Keep an ACCURATE journal of entry and exits. No need to pressure myself to post in real time if I am trying gauge the exit. But at the end of a period of 24 hours my trade status should be updated.
Trade the most *robust* Meantrade method for better or worse(some weeks 20 crb's suffer from Goldilocks angst). This means 20 crb's on GJ GU EU and UC. Wait for a proper reversal candle. For longs this means a white Heiken Ashi bar close above a pivot. Pivots are adjusted for the London and the US open. Targets are the opposite Keltner band which created the entry. If the market seems particularly strong, I will hold for an opposing reversal candle contra to my entry.
STOPS. Stops shall be two pivots from the entry. This averages about 180 pips on GJ, 120 on the others. Stops usually get taken on the Asian open, so if target doesn't come before the close of NY I will take my chances with the stop fairy. I have tried for years to cheat the stop fairy from denting my account. In the end, he sends his older more vindictive cousin, margin man to put me back in my place among the mortals. I fucking hate to be among the masses who have to follow pre-established rules set by others. Damn Humans!
But one thing I do have is my own method. I cannot say how important this has become to me in trading and in life. Without my own path, I feel empty and without purpose.
A few of Friday's trades which I didn't take but posted above for record keeping sake. Instead of making some great trades and sticking with them, I just hopped around from method to method which I thought MIGHT be more efficient and profitable than Meantrade. But they weren't. Nothing compares. Why? Meantrade is mine, warts and all. The sooner I accept my baby as my own, the sooner I will be CONSISTENTLY profitable.
To each and all I wish MODEST drawdowns and smooth equity curves...
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