Friday, July 31, 2009

GU long +++ GJ short --- UC long +

This little swing trade attempt turned out to be slightly positive but only by a hair. I will keep holding these 3 pairs and see if the relation between GU and GJ can come back to equilibrium. If you take a look at the relative price spread, you can see there is a massive spike in GU and a very tight range in GJ the past two days. When these two come back in line, it ought to happen at lower prices which will yield a modest profit on GJ, with a 200+ pip buffer on GU, I will hold off on booking profits. See chart for my target measures.

For UC we are in a low momentum downwards trend, we have yet to see trend exhaustion and all upper challenges to the VP have been met with sellers. 1.07 is up next. Let's see if we get there.

Trader Test

These are becoming very popular formulaic pop tests but they, just like astrology tests, reveal nuggets of truth.

I came out as an Independent Trader.

Trading Strengths

  1. You can quickly determine if a new style of trading or system will fit well with your personality.
  2. You can rapidly evaluate when something is working for you.
  3. You like the challenge of sorting out market conditions and like the intellectual stimulation of developing and planning low risk trading ideas.

Trading Challenges

  1. Your trading could dominate your time and you could become socially isolated, which in turn could upset others, particularly if you have a spouse.
  2. You may reject or abandon workable systems if the logic isn't clear; because you don't understand the systems boundaries ahead of time.
  3. You are a human being not an android, and you do have emotions. You just don't pay that much attention to them.
What was particularly interesting was the Strengths and Challenges. The one I am most surprised about is the isolation remark and how it can affect my social life. I find, the more I trade, the less time I spend with others unrelated to my trading. I have to "take the needle out of my arm" as Joe DiNapoli once said about the addictive nature of trading. I have tried various approaches, swing trading, auto trading. Nothing seems to keep me away from the markets, in profit and in loss, I am a true market addict.

See for yourself, where do you fit into the trader personality matrix?

Thursday, July 30, 2009

Still shining on the original Meantrade method

Seems I am chasing my tail with all these variations. With a hard stop of 40 pips today was a big day on GJ and most other pairs I track(will start with stops of 25 for EU and UC, 30 on GU). Will trade based on the direction of the 1 hour VP and the standard Meantrade method the rest of the week.

Too active scanning the charts for tiny variations which add nothing to the bottom line.

Short GJ Swing

Crude Oil collapsed after inventories and consequently UC seems like it has ended the downtrend. Looking for a test of the lower Keltner to exit for my loss.

Shorting GJ for the hourly swing as VP crossed lower and we are trading at the upper keltner.

Normally it would be a bit strange to be short GJ and long GU but the markets are in a wide range this week with no clear conviction in the USD yet. Should see a return to the upper range by Friday.

Let's see what happens...

Wednesday, July 29, 2009

Swing GU long /UC Short

We had a fierce pullback tonight. Trying to enjoy my summer with the slower pace of the markets on the hourlies. Let's see if the week makes a final test of the highs or if we have had a trend reversal with the dollar index at the yearly low.

Tuesday, July 28, 2009

Inspiring post yet again from Dr. Steenbarger.

Monday, July 27, 2009

Cover UC+++ Sell GU +

Biggest trade of the year. 200+ pips on multiple lots; I made some choices in this trade which paid off. I will try to be more agressive when I see a clear trend like this in the future. In fact, the trend is not over by any measure but I like my odds of finding a re-entry price this week for another test of bottom. Political events causing me to consider how far below the BOC comfort levels we are(See Black Swan's report here.

As expected GU also bounced back. I took a modest profit at 1.65. No, I didn't, I took a very nice profit of 50 pips at 1.65 =) I had average price around 1.6450 on Friday's close.

Experimenting with smaller range bars than normal. Liking what I get. In the summer sessions the ranges are contracting so it's better to adopt a more hit and run style than normal as profits are evaporating faster than usual. If you scale down far enough there is always a trend to be had.

Here is a recap of some trades I took earlier today.

It's been a good day as you can see.

Saturday, July 25, 2009

Add GU long Add UC short

Markets are really not trading in sync at all. And I, in turn, am chasing my own tail since there is no direction in the currencies. I missed the exit on GU this morning so I am buying more here to get a better average price. As weak as GU looks today, it is still above the 4hr VP and is trading above the psychological level of 1.60. Oil is making highs, the DOW is sky high. The Euro is super strong, only GBP is weak today.

If you make a basket of what moves in sync when markets are risk seeking, oil drives and the continential currencies follow. But only GBP is lagging. Feel confident we will see 1.65 before we see 1.64 again.

UC made new lows, got a new sell signal. Added half a position. Seeking sub 1.08 again.

The cleanest trade of the day was long EU. I wasn't on it. EU is a real fox. Always playing dead until it's not. By then, you lose interest and you miss the best trades.

Friday, July 24, 2009

Buy GU

There was a necessary break in the signals today. Of course the biggest move of the week =)

It's ok, small consolation I remained short on UC so my week has been made by this new upstart in the trading matrix. Now sitting on a multi-handle move and looking for a weekly close on the lows before exiting. Unless of course we make it back to break even. Then, it would probably be a scratch trade.

Long GU for the push into the NY close. If it doesn't come, the London push ought to make things interesting.

Thursday, July 23, 2009

Exit GJ

Had to buy more on the NY open, got a lucky uptick took about 50 pips all told.

Still short UC, looking for a lower high to short in London.

There are times when trading is hard, not because of the risk, but because the plan works so well, it gives you a false sense that you can read the market.

Today is a dangerous day because it worked out exactly as I planned.

My bias is for the market to stay put for the next few days. In fact, my true bias is to be right. I need to correct this wrong at all costs.

Wednesday, July 22, 2009


Decided to add a little diversity to the matrix. 4hr VP is very short. Had a really nice move off the bottom for a late NY short. Already up 30 pips at this point, will hold for London and see if we can squeeze anymore out of it.

Still long GJ, sniff. Sometimes I wish I could take profits sooner, be happy with modest gains. But the volatitliy of this market actually gives me confidence that this will turn out a winner, will probably need to buy some on the next pullback. The VP is much lower so we are probably going to consolidate between Today's low and Monday's high.

Monday, July 20, 2009

Buy GJ

4hr VP (Volatility Pivot) is long, nice pullback on the 20 CRB chart in the thick of a meaty uptrend. I'll take my chances on a long here.

Sunday, July 19, 2009

Volatiltiy Pivot redux

After trading with the volatility pivot for a week, I found the best settings and time frame are higher than the actual trade triggering "time frame" (or in this case the CRB). I settled in on the 4hr timeframe. A quick backest has yielded a spectacularly consistent pattern of prices bouncing off of the probability bands along with the reversal pattern heiken ashi method I have been trading for a while now.

Charts are displayed above for GU

Exit EU +0 Exit GU ++

Scratch trade. My charts crashed and could not track the markets with CRB's. Luckily the market didn't veer too far from my entries.

Thursday, July 16, 2009

SHort GU

Getting a lower high if this signal stands.

Buy EU

EU looking like a swinger =)

Cover EU --

-34 on this one. Live to trade another day.

Short EU

Trade to the lower keltner band.

Wednesday, July 15, 2009

Cover GU++

bit of hesitation at the middle keltner but price reached its objective anyways.

Short GU

Seeking support at 1.6415

Exit GJ ++

Taking profits here +40 on GJ.

Buy GJ

Employing the volatility bias I am long GJ looking for an upward thrust to HOD.

Volatility Pivot

A chat friend, someone I have never met, and to be honest, had even forgotten we spoke before, asked me about minibahn's method which employed the volatility pivot. I had looked at this indicator before brushing it aside as it didn't fit into my vision of how markets move in symetrical patterns. But a second look has proven me wrong once again. What it provides is a bias, which in my current method, is missing. This greatly reduces the amount of eligible trades but it also allows me to buy support and sell resistance at the earliest possible time.

I was experimenting with momentum based entries and although they tend to be very robust over a full set of trades, they have me in the market most of the time. Not to mention I never know when the market will turn.

I will post for a while with this new volatility pivot and see if it adds any beneficial element to my method.