Prospect Theory in full color

Maybe one day there will be a pill to pop before taking trades to help better manage risk. For now, we still struggle with our emotions in risking money. Damn the amygdyla, the bane of our brains =)

Cover GU++ Buy GU

Markets have made an outside reversal. Took the second short on GU and am now seeking a return to yesterdays range.

Sell GJ++

Taking profits here on GJ. Probably will see 160 but I am biased short as we are well below the highs of the day. Will look to re-enter long again during Tokyo. Feeling ok with GU short and will add if we see higher prices from here.

GJ bigger picture

Markets have been sludgy all NY session because of expected Bernie speak in the PM. This market pause has given me a chance to look at some bigger picture charts. Looks like the sub 156 area is really big support on the 100 CRB chart. And if we get a bounce here it should reach all the way back to 160ish. That would complete a head and shoulder, which in turn would create a very logical place to re-enter the swing short again.

Let's see what happens...

Short GU

GU seems to be the leader into the NY open. Expect a massive spike one way or the other with Bernake on tap.

Buy GJ

Cleared out my short swing on GJ++ Was not the cleanest of runs but I will take my 300 pips gladly.

Buying small here. 1st buy during London, 2nd on the open of NY. Am looking for a retracement to re-enter on a short setup at the lower range of London prices.

Sell GU++

This damn google chrome browser is giving me the shits. Took 35pips on the GU long. Was looking for new HOD but it didn't come yet. GJ and EU shorts still on looking for new lows this week.

http://up.widget.mibbit.com/up/kzk59mQ9.gif

Short GU++ Buy GU...

Took a short on the open and now reversing long.

*Don't know why, cannot post a chart in the normal fashion:

http://up.widget.mibbit.com/up/uFNMNsB7.gif

Sell GU+

Holding overnight makes me feel as if the glory and cleanliness of intra-day trading is not always possible with my system. This morning was such a clear buy signal but I was already in. Taken profits on this one and will look for a buy later today once the retracement comes.

Buy GU

Playing the ranges here. Looking for a test of new intraday top. If we don't drop from here it will be a higher low.

Dream come true

You don't often get a setup like this. Into the Ny open, GBP was heavily sold and when it bounced, it turned just in time for my system to catch it on 2 markets. I didn't trade it today but it is a nice reassurance that the system hasn't completely broken down after early last weeks really bad deciion to not take a loss on the GJ short. Still holding short underwater on that one for another few days, I expect...

Sell GU++

Added some more GU around 1.6280 exited around 1.6360 for +20 or so. Will probably just keep flying along but I have a short bias and it's closing time in NY now.

GJ Weekly Levels

Glancing at the GJ weekly chart we can see that this monster has given so many pips it's shocking that I haven't taken train at least once and hoped for the best. More than 6100 Pips short last year since the summer and an additional 2100 this year, with barely a drawdown in sight. Stomach churning missed opportunity.

On the radar above is 165.97 which we will probably see in the next 2 hours the way GJ is trading this week (only half joking). On the downside is sturdy 150.30 which may be an excellent place to pick up the lottery ticket longs.

Will definetly review this chart on a regular basis.

EU Weekly Levels

Constrast with GU, EU is less decisively long although still trending in its own stop start manner. The most noticeable fact that eventhough we went below the MA's and the stop bands, the MACD never crossed down into sell territory.

Signifigant levels this year have been 1.3823 which we have already tested this month. Above we have 1.4362 which everyone has their eye on. Below, which is where I am biased for us to head is 1.3312. Fantasy target is 1.3027. If we can get there and I am still short, it really would be a fantasy come true.

GU Weekly Levels

Taking a step back and consider just how far we have come this year. Makes me scratch my head a bit and consider, what if I had the patience to sit through a 400 pip drawdown in early March? Could I be sitting on a 1800+ pip winner like the market has offered up on a platter? And more importantly where are we likely to see a multi day reversal? Looks like we have a little room on the upside. 1.6790 looks like a safe level to play for.

I called them pauses because who knows what happens at these levels, but the first "pause" of the year provided a good place to take interim profits. The next week would have made most people kick themselves, but you get the idea. We have really made a huge gain this year on the GBP.

Buy GU

Looks like we are long again. Not looking for much. retrace to the pivot would be nice...

Exit GU ++

Easiest trade all week. Too bad it's not a homerun =)

Buy GU

Last GJ trade has not gone so well, the exit came yesterday at the open of Tokyo but I didn't take it. Didn't want to take a small 20 pip loss. Now sitting on -200. Expect we will see lower ranges by next week so will hold it. But damn, this is no way to trade.

Currently long GU and looking for new HOD, which we will probably see in NY...oh the pains of being on the wrong side and KNOWING it's the wrong side!

Add short GJ

EU has made a very smooth bottom coming into NY, not feeling too good about this short, but have faith in my method.

EXIT GJ Long reverse Short

Taking profits and reversing short. Will not take large position as I am already short on EU from the swing trade. Paring profits on EU every 100 pips lower.

Buy GJ

Dipped below Friday low and back into the range, taking a modest position here looking for buyers into New York.

When not to take the trade on Friday

I have been burned more times than I care to recall on Fridays trend. So here I have two different trades. One which I took and another which I passed on. 

The GJ trade was high percentage for a few reasons. First, It was in the middle of the range. Second, it had a halthy pullback from the highs buy was still well above the lows. It was also early in the session so no chance of a runaway breakout contra my signal.

Eu was not a trade because it had already broken the low of the previous session as well as for the week. In my experience, the likelyhood of price returning into the weekly price channel on a Firday after a large new event is extremely low probability. I don't have exact stats on such a hunch but speaking directly from negative account balances, this is the ideal setup to AVOID.

Walked away with almost 200 pips on GJ--first trade was in the London session which I failed to post because of time constraints. 

A good week overall. Hope things continue and my head stays in a modest place.

Buy GJ

The dust has settled since the NFP. We saw the Euro make an outside reversal, making new highs and new lows already. We are finally in a clear trading range. GJ didn't breakdown, it's time to try a bounce. Will seek HOD on this trade as I am still short EU so in effect I am hedged in my mind to be long on GJ, can afford to swing for the fences.